Coin Flip Example
Consider a coin flip. The true probability is 50% for heads and 50% for tails, corresponding to decimal odds of 2.0 and american odds of +100. If a sportsbook offers odds of 55% probability (1.82 decimal, -122 american) for the coin to land on heads, you would lose money over time. This is because you would win 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time, so you would win $82, lose $100, win $82, lose $100, and so on. However, if they offer odds of 45% probability (2.22 decimal, +122 american) for the coin to land on heads, you would win money over time. You would win $122, lose $100, win $122, lose $100, and so on. Value bets guarantee profitability over an infinite number of bets.
The MetricBets Formula
The MetricBets formula identifies value bets by comparing true probability of match outcomes to the sportsbook odds. If you only bet on match outcomes where the true probability is higher than the sportbook odds, you will make money over an infinite period of time. The MetricBets formula identifies these value bets using advanced statistics and computing concepts.
The formula has been profitable betting on several first division professional football (soccer) leagues throughout the world over the last 3 years. As shown in the graph below, since July 1, 2022, the MetricBets formula has outpaced the S&P 500 index by some distance. Visit bet history to view all bets placed using the MetricBets formula. Visit today's matches to view today's matches with the corresponding MetricBets calculated probabilities.
